It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Flipboard (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . And right now, he simply isnt there. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. Adam Wainwright K's McCormick. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). Sometimes a little spring-training soreness is nothing more than a little spring-training soreness. Even 250 wins is a rare accomplishment at this point. Since then, hes made the All-Star team every year, led the league in wins on three occasions, and won a Cy Young award in each league. He just turned 30 on August 7, and hes already fifth in JAWS and third in peak among center fielders, but this has been largely a lost year due to a right calf strain thats already required the longest recovery time in at least six years. The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. While it seems impossible to envision it now, Wainwright was not always a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. Look at that. Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. ago. Your email address will not be published. Wainwright was a three time All Star and two time Gold Glove winner, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young vote four times. Even if he retired now, Verlander has likely done enough to ensure a plaque in Cooperstown. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. 2000-2023 Rogers Media. MILWAUKEE -- Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. Given the way hes been pitching as of late, thats certainly not farfetched. Prices highlights include a 2012 Cy Young award, two ERA titles, and five 200-strikeout seasons. Strikeouts are booming like never before. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Despite dealing with shoulder soreness and some rough stretches, Greinke the active leader in JAWS has pitched an AL-high 159.2 innings, though he will probably get overtaken after landing on the COVID-19 IL on Tuesday. During the 2022 regular season, 'Waino' finished with a record of 11-12 and 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings, while also racking up 143 strikeouts. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. It happens a lot. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Jos Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. Jansens 30 saves have pushed him to 14th on the all-time list, five away from the next rung and 26 away from cracking the top 10. Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's. Todays pitcher will make it more for efficiency. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. While Pujols and Molina are guaranteed to enter the Hall of Fame, Wainwright's case is a tricky one to say the least. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. When Wainwright has pitched, hes been traditionally one of the better pitchers in the league, having won 20 games twice, 19 games on two other occasions, and led the league twice. Flaherty is calm. Adam Wainwright is the quintessential "Hall of Fame candidate for Cardinals fans" Hall of Fame candidate of the current team. When Adam Wainwright decides to hang up his cleats, the St.. Wainwrights candidacy as an elite pitcher of his time should strengthen during the five years between his retirement and his first appearance on a Hall of Fame ballot. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. Greinke was dominant for the 2009 Kansas City Royals, winning the league ERA crown (2.16) and leading the AL in WHIP (1.073), and even better for the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a ridiculous 1.66 ERA and at one point throwing 43.2 consecutive scoreless innings over six starts. Sale went two years and a day between major league outings due to elbow inflammation, a flexor tendon strain, and Tommy John surgery, but hes made a solid return so far, with a 2.53 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate through four starts. Hes made two starts this spring, covering five total innings. Still, hes won 230 games, led the league in wins twice, and won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring. He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. Adam Wainwright's age is 41. And I finally reached the point where I just ignored the spin and started to interpret the lack of candor as a possible warning sign. Sep 14, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. But theres a rhythm to the ritual. Still, his 2.60 ERA is his lowest since 2017, and his strikeout rate is a solid 29.8%. By either that mark or traditional reliever JAWS, the 33-year-old Kimbrel is the biggest gainer this year. This is a veteran, and he knows what he needs to do. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. David Price is older than he seems; hes already 32 in a few months with just 122 career wins. We didn't recognize that password reset code. Maybe he has it in him to stick around for another 20 wins to get to 200, but he might not even crack the top 100 in JAWS while doing so. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. 1st stage: All good. He is known for being a Baseball Player. No Cy's (albeit 4 top 3 finishes). For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. Always ranking QBs. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. Your existing password has not been changed. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. This will undoubtedly hurt Wainwright's bid for the Hall of Fame. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. Zack Greinke has had an interesting career. Hes never pitched for a World Series champion, and his career postseason statistics wont help him hes 2-8 with a 5.54 ERA, and hes gotten completely shelled on multiple occasions. Interestingly enough, he missed the entire 2011 season for the world champion St. Louis Cardinals, but he did play an integral role as a closer in the 2006 playoffs, throwing 9.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs. Sure there are. In the five innings Wainwright yielded eight hits and four earned runs for a 7.20 ERA. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He produced the worst set of metrics in a full season in his career. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). 82-53, 2.99 ERA, 1,380 strikeouts, 138 adjusted ERA. 1:09 | September 14, 2022 St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you. But at least it wont be historically egregious. FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. Wainwright, however, has a much more finite timetablehe has announced that he is retiring. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. Chris Sale keeps getting better with age, and with the way hes ben mowing down hitters in a 2017 free agent year, hes going to earn a lucrative $200 million deal in the offseason. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. But even if we throw 2020 out, Flaherty averaged only 57 innings of work over the last two years. With 273 homers, Goldschmidt could reach 300 by the end of next season, though with 1,539 hits, the 2,000 milestone and real clarity on his fate is probably three seasons away. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. Hes got a long ways to go to reach 200 wins (he has 112), but hes already at 2,031 strikeouts. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. The best pitcher in MLB? Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. Pujols, Wainwright and Molina were each given an introduction and trotted out to the diamond to be greeted by 16 Cardinals Hall of Famers. But Wainwright proved his solid 2020 wasnt a brief mirage. A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. This isnt your fathers Hall of Fame. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. Molina should make the Baseball Hall of Fame while Wainwright will probably fall short, but even so, we need to enjoy the final season with the longtime battery mates on the . He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. Flaherty insists hes feeling great this spring. Please contact us. But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? For starters, no pitcher can stay that good for that long. Bumgarner has thrown 36 career innings in the World Series and allowed one earned run. . I highly doubt it. With eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, Kershaw is probably a lock for election already, but reaching and surpassing some major career milestones would further elevate him in the pantheon. . He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing-and-miss stuff and faded to a 17.8 percent strikeout rate. Hes even seen somewhat of a career resurgence after struggling from 2014-2015, he rebounded to lead the AL in strikeouts in 16. Adam Wainwright is not a Hall of Famer yet. Sales unconventional windup seems to leave open the idea of Tommy John surgery or at least a serious injury, but he has averaged 30 starts per season since entering the rotation in 12. Adam Wainwright on Baseball Reference.. 5th stage: 60-day IL. If hes still got the stuff and durability to get to 3,000, the rest of the numbers might fall into place. Please logout and login again. Godspeed, Waino. Only Clemens, Johnson, Carlton and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers who have won more. The contact rate against him on pitches in the strike zone last season 91 percent was the highest against him during his 17-season MLB career. Greinke has won an ERA title in each league. According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. Alas, just before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old southpaw landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm and hasnt even gotten to the point of a rehab stint yet after suffering a setback in late July. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. While wins arent everything, Ive chosen to list them chronologically by career win total as a benchmark of evaluation. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. Astros @ Cardinals. The veteran right-hander is the last remaining . And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. The pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, in which Wainwright went 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 10 starts, amounted to a fourth lost season for the right-hander, who missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery and made just seven appearances (four starts) due to a torn Achilles in 2015 before he was limited to eight starts by right elbow inflammation in 2018.

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